The Next Big Thing
College winners beget club winners. In the late 90's UCSB won three consecutive college titles and, parlaying that success to the club circuit, the Santa Barbara Condors took down the six time champion DoG in 2000, winning their first of two consecutive club titles. In the last decade, Colorado Mamabird has made the Finals four separate times, ('01, '04, '05, and '07) and won a National title in '04. Colorado's Johnny Bravo would follow suit by making club nationals every year since 2001, finally breaking into the semifinals for the first time in '06 and the Finals in '07.
So who's next? Who has been a dominant force in the college scene the last few years? Do they have a local club team ready to make a performance leap? The list is short, and the candidates few who meet the criteria. Doublewide's relationship with perpetual quarterfinalist Texas TUFF ('03, '05, '06, '07) could be a force in a few years, but the killing instinct is notably lacking in both teams. Recent upstart Revolver's farm system is the successful Stanford program, but the dilution of talent in the Bay between that team and JAM might be enough to keep both out of the winner's circle for the foreseeable future. The true beneficiary of collegiate talent, the club team with the most promise for 2008 and beyond, is Minnesota's Sub Zero.
The Wisconsin Hodags have easily been the most consistent program over the last seven years. Five trips to the Finals ('02, '03, '06, '07, '08) and three National titles ('03, '07, '08) is the stuff of dynasties. Midwestern neighbor Carleton is no slouch either. This "little school that could" has become one of the last bastions of liberal arts success in a BigU ultimate world, fielding three semifinal teams ('01, '03, '08) and a National titlest ('01) this millennium. Both programs, in addition to other schools like the University of Minnesota, have had superstars make it up the ranks of their local club powerhouse, Sub Zero, and are ready to take their place among the elite in Sarasota.
Setbacks
But what has taken so long? In 2002, Sub Zero was a Quarters team, losing to eventual Champions Furious George. But instead of taking the next step forward in 2003, the season was actually a major step back. The crew from Minneapolis finished dead last at Nationals despite coming in as the 10 seed. Why? In a move that has been commonplace for Midwest teams, their major talent headed Westward. After the 2002 season, Chase Sparling-Beckley and Sam O'Brien, two of Carleton's brightest young talents, turned down Sub Zero and eventually showed up in Seattle to play for Sockeye. This major setback reset the clock for Sub Zero, and the team would have two years of rebuilding ahead of them before making another Quarterfinals appearance.
In 2003 future Hodag defender Dan Miller, a Winona State transfer, began his club career with Subzero. The example he set paved the way for another Winona State transfer and Wisconsin superstar, Shane Hohenstein to make the weekend trips to Minneapolis. Success did not come easy however, and even with new recruits SZ still finished 13th in 2004.
However, 2005 would be a year of resurgence. Future Callahan winner Dan Heijmen and Carleton standout Jacob Goldstein joined the ranks and though the team could have succumbed to the bitter rivalry that the Wisconsin/Carleton players fostered in the college season, each party set aside their differences to simply win. Sub Zero took the central region for the first time over BAT and earned their shot at the Vancouver boys in Quarters. In a game that some would call the biggest game to be forgotten, Sub Zero took Furious George to the brink of elimination in an epic 17-16 universe final. Furious would come out victorious and would ride the momentum through the finals to claim their third title in four years. Sub Zero would go on to finish sixth, but were hopeful for the future.
2006 should have been a step up but like '03, but success eluded the squad again. Despite picking up Wisconsin standout Drew Mahowald and future CUT Captain Patrick Baylis, Sub Zero failed to make quarters. They took the Central Region and came into Nationals seeded seventh, but a pool play loss to Chain and a power pool loss to Metal kept them out of bracket play for the third time in four years.
Riding the momentum of their 2007 National title, virtually all of the Wisconsin superstars came out for Sub Zero. Will Lokke, Brandon "Muffin" Malecek, James Foster and even Harvard transfer Jack Marsh donned the negative numbers for SZ. The Carleton pipeline would contribute new talent as well, adding vicious cutters like Jerome Potter and Sam Kanner. With this talent influx SZ once again made it back to bracket play, but as they had in '02 and '05, they faced an early quarters exit, this time at the hands of San Francisco's JAM.
But if ultimate history tells us anything, it's that you can't keep a talented team down. With conditions being similar to the millennial Condors and the recent Johnny Bravo, Sub Zero could be the best they have ever been in 2008. The Hodag back to back National title experience, along with ascendant Minnosota and Carleton program hunger, can only propel an already ravenous SZ over the Quarterfinals hump. 2008 will find the program harnessing even more talent; future household name Grant Lindlsey (previous of Chain Lightning) will be bringing Junior Worlds experience to his SZ handling assignments, and Hector Valdivia, the ultimate market's biggest free agent for this Fall, will be suiting up with the bulk of his Hodag brethren in Minnesota. All the pieces are in for an SZ run this October.
The hard questions
So what will it take for Sub Zero to make semis? Bravo lost in quarters four times before they made final four, which bodes ill for a Sub Zero that has only made the elite eight three times since '02. First off, they need to remember that they have the talent to compete with anyone. Last year's nail biter victory over Furious George and recent coin-flip loses to Jam and the Buzz Bullets show they have what it takes to put together wins over elite teams. But they need to tread carefully the line between confidence and cockiness. Several key members of SZ were part of the Hodag losses to Michigan, Florida, and Pitt at this year's Centex. College Nationals saw a near-repeat of these stumblings as Wisconsin held off a primed and desperate Stanford Bloodthirsty in Friday's pool play. These players should recognize that they are susceptible to complacency and need to stay focused.
Ultimately, though, Sub Zero's determination to break into the elite set is their greatest strength. The synergy that has developed between the current crop of Wisconsin and Carleton teammates and the commitment to the SZ program that has kept graduated talent in Minnesota are testaments to how badly this group wants to break in.
Schedule
Our first chance to see what the Midwest boys can do this year will be Colorado Cup, where SZ has high expectations. Though attending teams Bravo, JAM and Truck Stop are all programs Sub Zero has struggled with in the past, they feel that the road to competing in Sarasota begins in Boulder. Like Bravo, Boston, GOAT, PoNY, Ring, and Truck Stop, Sub Zero will also be attending Chesapeake (in lieu of ECC) and Labor Day. This gives Sub Zero three solid tournaments to identify their major weaknesses and began to establish themselves as part of the contending elite for 2008.
If Sub Zero can succeed this summer, they could be looking at a favorable seed in Sarasota, which with JAM, Boston, Bravo, and Sockeye all returning stellar squads, would make a huge difference in quarters/semis matchups at Nationals. But regardless of how SZ does in August, by the end of that month we should have an idea of what their chances are in October. If they can really translate the compound successes of their farming programs, they'll give us an inkling of that at these early tournaments. Is Sub Zero the next big thing? We'll find out very soon.
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